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You'd have to be very naive to believe they can afford the rights to make a game in the Lord of the Rings universe.
"I am the Final Moment made flesh. I stand here on this mountain, and I will sit on this throne. I will be the axis upon which the wheel of change turns, and the world will drown in the light of unborn stars."
How much do those rights cost? how much is sega/CA willing to dish out?
Amazon just spent seven million to make an MMO on Tolkien's world I don't think that is out of the realm of possibility. Many much smaller companies have gained the rights to his books, why not do one based on the books? Then the most popular mod can base it on the movies. But first, you must show me how and why they cannot afford the rights to the movies. It would be naive to assume such things with no direct knowledge.